Citing various macroeconomic parameters that are doing pretty well, India's G20 Sherpa and former CEO of Niti Aayog Amitabh Kant projected that the country is all set to overtake Japan as 4th largest economy in the world by 2025. The size of India's GDP is currently ranked 5th, after the US, China, Germany, and Japan. It overtook the UK in 2022.
Domestic macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would guide market sentiments this week, analysts said. After a record rally, markets may face volatile trends this week amid elevated valuations and investors would also keep a track of global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar movement for further cues. "Potential volatility in the stock market is anticipated this week. Elevated valuations remain a concern, with investors now focusing on monsoon progress and its impact on the rural economy.
Lower IT exports will raise India's dependence on capital flows to fund imports.
'The RBI's MPC will maintain the current policy rates (6.50%) at the policy meeting, given ongoing inflationary pressures.'
In June last year, India unveiled its first list of 29 critical minerals open for private sector exploration and mining. Since then, 38 critical mineral blocks have been auctioned, but only 14 - less than 37 per cent - have found bidders. This modest achievement was secured only after the Centre conducted a second round of auctions when the first round fell flat, failing to attract the minimum required bidders.
Weak balance sheets due to hefty outgo of funds for new licences will reflect negatively on the 2013 outlook for the sector.
'Investors should focus on largecap funds, flexicap funds, business cycle funds, or hybrid-category funds.'
Do not, however, enter expecting quick returns.
'Investors can consider staying invested in long duration products as there is a possibility of rate cuts in the near term.' Positive macros - lower inflation, high forex reserves and favourable demand-supply dynamics for government bonds - make a strong case for rate cuts from December, says Devang Shah, head of fixed income, Axis Mutual Fund. In an interview with Abhishek Kumar in Mumbai, Shah says this view may not hold true if commodity prices go up sharply.
'Retail investors, who had not seen such a massive correction in the SMID universe since COVID-19, are witnessing something like this for the first time. Panic profit booking may continue.'
'The approach today is, instead of giving loans to 100 MSMEs, let us give one loan to a big-ticket corporate.' 'And so many of these big fish deceived the banks and the banks are in the doldrums now with high NPAs.'
Economy showing mixed signals, outlook challenging: FinMin
Rating agency Fitch on upgraded outlook of 10 financial institutionals, including SBI, ICICI Bank and EXIM Bank of India to 'stable' from 'negative' earlier following revision in the country's outlook.
The revenue growth of early birds or companies that have declared their Q4FY24 (March quarter) numbers is the highest in the last four quarters. The 178 companies (excluding their listed subsidiaries) that declared their results have reported a sales growth rate of 13.2 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), taking aggregate revenue to Rs 9.1 trillion. Including other income, growth is at 16 per cent, the highest in the last four quarters.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is likely to hold pre-budget consultations with industry chambers on June 20, sources said. The budget for 2024-25 fiscal is likely to be presented in Parliament in the second half of July. Industry sources said the pre-budget consultation with Sitharaman would be preceded by a meeting with Revenue Secretary Sanjay Malhotra on June 18.
India's services sector activities improved further and expanded at strongest rate in over 11 years in May, supported by a substantial pick-up in new business growth, even as input cost inflation climbed to a record high, a monthly survey said on Friday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index jumped to 58.9 in May, up from 57.9 in April, amid better underlying demand and strong inflows of new work. For the tenth straight month, the services sector witnessed an expansion in output.
TVS Motor Company met expectations in terms of revenue and posted a strong margin performance in Q1FY25. The key drivers were material cost savings and a better mix. The domestic demand outlook looks good with a rural rebound but geopolitical uncertainties in key export markets may dent overall growth.
India's merchandise exports rose by 9.1 per cent to $38.13 billion in May even as the trade deficit widened to a seven-month high of $23.78 billion during the month, according to government data. Healthy growth in sectors, such as engineering, electronics, pharmaceuticals, textiles and plastics helped register growth in exports despite global economic uncertainties.
India's current account deficit (CAD) may dip further in the March quarter of FY24 as pressure from the negative net exports during the January-March period eased to an 11-quarter high. A part of the gross domestic product (GDP) data, net export- which is usually negative for India - captures the difference between exports and imports of both goods and services, while the CAD data, released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), also factors in private transfer receipts.
India's manufacturing sector growth fell to 18-month low in December amid softer increase in factory orders and output, despite minimal inflation, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI survey, conducted by S&P Global, showed that there were softer, albeit sharp, increase in factory orders and output, while business confidence towards the year-ahead outlook strengthened. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell from 56 in November to an 18-month low of 54.9 in December.
Domestic institutional investors pumped Rs 2.3 trillion into equities during H1 CY24. Of this, mutual funds contributed 80%.
Indian employers are optimistic about their hiring prospects in the October-December quarter led by retail and healthcare sectors which are the prime movers behind the upswing, says a survey.
Snapping the two months slide, the country's merchandise exports rose marginally by 0.5 per cent to $34.58 billion in September while trade deficit narrowed to $20.78 billion. According to official data released on Wednesday, imports increased by 1.6 per cent to $55.36 billion in September compared to $54.49 billion in the year-ago period. The trade deficit, or the gap between imports and exports, was $20.8 billion during the same month last year.
India no longer needs big ticket reforms but small and basic ones to drive the growth forward, Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran said on Monday. Addressing the media after the Economic Survey 2023-24 presented in Parliament, Nageswaran said there is a need to pursue all possible approaches without any ideological orientation. "In terms of the kind of reforms that we need to do, it is no longer big-ticket reforms that dominate your front pages but more about grunt works.
'IPOs have performed exceptionally well, with a notable increase in average ticket size from Rs 800 crore in the last financial year to around Rs 1,300 crore in this financial year.'
The two IT majors -- Infosys and TCS -- delivered disappointing results for the fourth quarter of the 2022-23 financial year (Q4FY23). Poor macro conditions and weak sentiment in the banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) space accounted for the miss. For TCS, revenue in constant currency (CC) terms grew at 0.6 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) basis. Weakness was visible in North America, primarily due to deferred discretionary spending.
An allocation to ESG theme funds can bring down the overall risk of an equity portfolio. Investors with long-term financial goals, such as retirement, should not ignore sustainable investing.
'It's a debatable topic, and we will submit our comments to the RBI by June 15.'
Bajaj Finserv, Infosys, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tech Mahindra, Hindustan Unilever, State Bank of India and HCL Technologies were the biggest gainers. On the contrary, Asian Paints, JSW Steel, NTPC and Adani Ports were among the laggards.
Once we break free of the idea that land is scarce, real estate is just a pile of bricks, steel, and glass. Any price surge will kick off a supply response, which kills off the possibility of sustained price appreciation, points out Ajay Shah.
According to staffing company Teamlease for the first quarter of this fiscal year, the overall net employment outlook index made a smart turnaround to recover lost ground.
'Historically, the markets tend to perform well during election years as governments aim to increase spending and call attention to growth.'
Outlook for external sector is the most favourable.
Sales of electric vehicles (EVs) in July touched 178,948 units, marking the highest monthly sales this financial year. This represents a 27.9 per cent increase from June, which saw 139,905 units sold, according to the Vahan data from the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways. The strong performance in July contributed to more than one million being sold in the first seven months of the calendar year.
'They think quick fixes like internship in the private sector will help. 'In fact, internships have been going on for the last one decade.' 'In 2014-2015 itself, we had a ministry of skill development. None of the programmes have yielded results, still they are continuing with such schemes under some other name.' 'We don't see any seriousness on the part of the government to attack the problem of unemployment.'
'India represents one of the top opportunities with robust growth, solid fundamentals, and openness to foreign investment.'
India can sustain 8 per cent annual GDP growth and the conducive macroeconomic configuration may become a launching pad for a step-up in the country's growth trajectory, said an article on the 'State of Economy' in the central bank's March Bulletin published on Tuesday. Over the period 2021-24, gross domestic product (GDP) growth has averaged above 8 per cent. The global economy is losing steam, with growth slowing in some of the most resilient economies and high frequency indicators, pointing to further levelling in the period ahead, said the article authored by a team led by RBI Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra.
The share of foreign loans in total Adani group debt portfolio dropped to 61 per cent by September 2023 from 63 per cent as of March 2023, as the group repaid part of its foreign loans and refinanced part of older loans. The share of Indian lenders, on the other hand, rose to 39 per cent in the total debt pie in September 2023 from 37 per cent in March after a report by US-based short seller Hindenburg Research in January last year, which led to volatility in the share prices of group companies. The group's total debt remained static at Rs 2.26 trillion in the same period.
'China is struggling to get out of its property bubble.' 'Japan took 35 years to walk out of its equity bubble.' 'Bubbles can be difficult to forecast.'
Apart from Infosys, players like Tata Consultancy Services and Mindtree have also pointed towards weakness in the financial services sector and project delays and cancellations that could impact the growth of the USD 110 billion IT services sector in the near term.
